That "5% walkout" on the pack doesn't mean what you think it means. Punch in any pack's odds and see your real cumulative chance — no sign-up, no ads.
Summary: each FC 27 pack roll is independent, so your chance of packing a card in N packs is 1 − (1 − p)ᴺ — not p × N. At 5% walkout odds, 20 packs give you about a 64% chance (not 100%), and you'd need 45 packs for 90% confidence. The calculator below does the math both ways.
The calculator
Pack size — FC 27 renamed packs by size (optional, for item & cost math):
Presets are round-number examples only — always use the official odds shown on the pack in the FC 27 store. Results assume every pack has identical, independent odds. FC 27 pack sizes: Mini (3 items), Small (6), Large (9), Jumbo (24), Giant (32). EA publishes odds per pack, so size doesn't change the probability math above — it only changes how many items (and coins) each roll represents.
Confidence can never reach 100% — there is always a tiny chance of missing, no matter how many packs you open.
Squad rating check (traditional SBCs)
SBC asking for a squad rating? Paste your 11 players' ratings below (spaces or commas). EA's squad rating is the average of the 11 ratings, rounded.
Item score estimate (Streamlined SBCs)
FC 27's Streamlined SBCs ask for a total Item Score, not an 11-man squad — submit any number of cards toward the target. Add H after a rating to mark it Holographic (e.g. 84H); Holographics rated 88+ count as Pristine. Estimate only: EA hasn't published the exact Item Score numbers.
Approximation: base score = card rating; Holographic / Pristine bonuses are provisional estimates (defaults 10 / 15) because EA hasn't published the exact table. Rarity bonuses (TOTW, Hero, ICON…) also add score in-game but aren't modeled here. Traditional rating-based SBCs still exist — use the squad rating check above for those.
How pack probability actually works
Every pack you open is an independent roll — the game doesn't remember your last 19 packs. That independence is why "5% × 20 packs = 100%" is wrong: it double-counts the overlap (the same pack can't give you the "first" walkout twice). The correct cumulative formula is:
P(at least one in N packs) = 1 − (1 − p)ᴺ
Plug in p = 5% and N = 20: 1 − 0.95²⁰ ≈ 64.2%. Flip it around to find how many packs you need for a target confidence C: N = ln(1 − C) / ln(1 − p), rounded up. For 90% confidence at 5% odds: ln(0.1) / ln(0.95) ≈ 44.9 → 45 packs.
Pack odds
The official per-pack percentage EA publishes in the FC 27 store for each rating tier — e.g. the chance one pack contains a walkout. Always read it off the actual pack.
Cumulative probability
Your real chance of hitting at least once across N packs: 1 − (1 − p)ᴺ. Always lower than p × N, and never reaches 100%.
Expected packs
On average, how many packs it takes to see one hit: 1 ÷ p. At 5% odds that's 20 packs — but "average" means half of players need more.
Walkout
Community slang for packing a high-rated player with the walkout animation (usually 86+ rated). The exact rating threshold shifts slightly between FC titles.
Gambler's fallacy
The mistaken belief that a dry streak makes a hit "due". Each pack is independent — 30 packs with no walkout doesn't change pack 31's odds one bit.
A worked example
Say a promo pack shows 5% walkout odds and you're thinking of opening 20 of them — say Jumbo packs (24 items each in FC 27, so 480 items total). Your real chance of at least one walkout is 1 − 0.95²⁰ ≈ 64.2% — good, not guaranteed. Want 90% confidence? You'd need 45 packs. On average you'd see your first walkout around pack 20 (1 ÷ 0.05), and at 15,000 coins per pack, 45 packs cost 675,000 coins for that 90% confidence.
Spending the profits? Check the EA tax calculator to see what you actually keep when you sell a pull — and run your new signing through our FC 27 chemistry calculator before slotting them into the squad. Choosing a chemistry style for them? Our 3-question style finder picks one in seconds.
Pack Odds FAQ
Where do I find a pack's real odds in FC 27?
EA publishes the official odds for every pack inside the FC 27 store — open a pack's details before buying and you'll see the percentage chance for each rating tier. Use those numbers in the calculator above; they are the only odds that matter for that specific pack.
If a pack has 5% walkout odds, do 20 packs guarantee a walkout?
No. Each pack is independent, so 20 packs at 5% odds give you about a 64% cumulative chance — meaning roughly one in three players opening 20 packs still won't see a walkout. Use the calculator's reverse mode to see how many packs you'd need for 90% confidence (45 packs at 5% odds).
Why isn't the chance just 5% times 20 packs = 100%?
Probabilities don't add up like that. The correct formula is 1 minus (1 minus p) to the power of N: 1 - (1 - 0.05)^20 = 64.2%. Multiplying p by N overcounts because it ignores the overlap — the same pack can't produce the 'first' walkout twice.
How many packs do I need for 90% confidence of packing a walkout?
It depends on the per-pack odds. At 5% walkout odds you need 45 packs for 90% confidence; at 2% odds you need 114 packs. Enter your pack's odds in the calculator's second tab ('How many packs?') and it computes the exact number.
Does buying packs in bulk change the odds?
No. Every pack roll is independent, so buying 10 at once has exactly the same odds per pack as buying them one at a time. Bulk offers only change the price per pack — the probability math stays the same.
Do pack odds change during promos in FC 27?
EA sets odds per pack, and promo packs usually have different (often better) odds than regular packs. Always check the in-game odds shown for the specific pack you are about to open — never assume last week's odds still apply.
Do bigger packs have better odds in FC 27?
Per pack, usually yes — but only because the odds already account for size. FC 27 renamed packs by size: Mini (3 items), Small (6), Large (9), Jumbo (24), Giant (32). A bigger pack's published odds are typically higher because it rolls more items, and that is already baked into the percentage EA prints on that pack. The calculator math is identical either way — always use the odds shown on the specific pack you're opening.